The 2006 election results
It’s time for a history lesson. The off-year election was a week ago yesterday. Did the voters react in a revolutionary manner to the Iraq war? Would the Republican Party have done well if it wasn’t for Iraq? Did the voters pronounce the Democratic Party as the savior for the nation? Did unusual circumstances produce historically unusual results?
A basic tenet of political thought is that in non Presidential elections the Party of the President normally loses members in Congress. Similarly, the Party of the newly elected President tends to gain membership in Congress. Let’s look at the historical record.
However, before reviewing the election history of the United States, let’s briefly mention the experience of Winston Churchill. “Winston Churchill … (is) widely regarded as the greatest British leader of the 20th century. Churchill is celebrated for his leadership during World War II (1939-1945). His courage, decisiveness, political experience, and enormous vitality enabled him to lead his country through the war, one of the most desperate struggles in British history.” (“Winston Churchill,” Microsoft ® Encarta ® 2007. [DVD]. Redmond, Wa: Microsoft Corporation, 2006.)
In Great Britain, the Prime Minister, who is similar to our President, is not elected by the people directly. The Prime Minister is elected by the majority party or a coalition of parties if no one party has a majority in Parliament. Therefore, the Prime Minister almost always has a majority in Parliament. If a Prime Minister loses the majority in Parliament, a new member becomes Prime Minister.
Winston Churchill was first selected Prime Minister in 1940 after Great Britain and Germany went to war in 1939. In 1945 when the war was won and Great Britain was saved, Winston Churchill’s party LOST the election and Churchill was removed as Prime Minister. Churchill’s party won the war and LOST the first election after the war. What a shock! Victory led to defeat at the polls. Oh, democracy is filled with surprises or not. In all, Winston Churchill served as Prime Minister twice—1940-1945 and 1951-1955.
Looking at the American experience:
In 1928 after the Presidential election, the Republican Party controlled both the Presidency and both houses of Congress. The stock market nose dived in 1929 and not surprisingly the Republican Party lost membership in both houses of Congress in the 1930 election although they still controlled both houses.
Year >>> House members >>> Senate members
1928 >>>>> 61.9% R. >>>>>>>>> 58.3% R.
1930 >>>>> 50.1% R. >>>>>>>>> 50.0% R.
(In 1930 one member was an Independent: there were 48 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Senate.)
In 1932, the Democratic Party won the Presidency with Franklin D. Roosevelt and overwhelmingly won both houses of Congress.
1932 >>>>> 72.0% D. >>>>>>>>> 61.5% D.
1934 >>>>> 74.0% D. >>>>>>>>> 71.9% D.
In the 1934 election, the Democratic Party which just became the majority party two years before actually increased their majorities in both houses.
In 1936, Franklin Roosevelt won reelection and the Democrats in a Presidential year also increased their membership in both houses. 1936 was the year that the Democratic Party had the greatest percent of Democrats in Congress from 1928 to the present.
1936 >>>>> 76.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 78.1% D.
1938 >>>>> 60.2% D. >>>>>>>>> 71.9% D.
In the off-year election of 1938, the Democrats lost over 16% of their members in the House and about 6% in the Senate.
In the Presidential election of 1940 before our involvement in World War II, President Roosevelt was reelected for an unprecedented third term. At the same time, the Democrats gained slightly in the House and lost a few members in the Senate. In the off-year election the Democrats lost members in both houses.
1940 >>>>> 61.4% D. >>>>>>>>> 68.8% D.
1942 >>>>> 51.0% D. >>>>>>>>> 59.4% D.
During the war, another election was held in 1944. President Roosevelt was elected for a fourth term. The Democrats gained members in the House and remained the same in the Senate.
1944 >>>>> 55.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 59.4% D.
Then, the non Presidential election of 1946 occurred. The war had been won. The Democrats had controlled both houses of Congress and the Presidency since 1932. And lo and behold, THE DEMOCRATS LOST BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS. They won the war and lost the first Congressional election after the war. Oh, democracy is filled with surprises or not.
1946 >>>>> 43.2% D. >>>>>>>>> 46.9% D.
The Democrats lost over 12% of their membership in the House and almost 13% in the Senate. What in the world happened? They won the war and lost the election!!!
In the election of 1948 Democratic Presidential candidate Harry S. Truman shocked the so-called experts by winning the Presidency. The Democrats also easily regained control of Congress.
1948 >>>>> 60.5% D. >>>>>>>>> 56.3% D.
The results: over a 17% increase in membership in the House and over a 9% increase in membership in the Senate.
1950 >>>>> 53.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 50.0% D.
In the off-year election the Democrats lost membership in both houses of Congress but remained in control.
In 1952 during the Korean Conflict, the Republicans won the Presidency and won both houses of Congress.
1952 >>>>> 49.0% D. >>>>>>>>> 47.9% D.
In 1954, the Democrats regained control of Congress with a Republican as President.
1954 >>>>> 53.3% D. >>>>>>>>> 50.0% D.
(In both 1950 and 1954, one member of the Senate was an Independent. There were 48 Democrats and 47 Republicans in both
1950 and 1954.)
In 1956, Republican President Eisenhower won reelection but the Democrats slightly increased their control of Congress.
1956 >>>>> 53.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 51.0% D.
In the off-year election, the Democrats who did not control the Presidency significantly increased their control of Congress.
1958 >>>>> 64.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 65.3% D.
In 1960, the Democrats regained control of the Presidency but lost some members in Congress.
1960 >>>>> 60.0% D. >>>>>>>>> 64.0% D.
In the election of 1962, the Democrats lost four house seats but gained three Senate seats.
1962 >>>>> 59.4% D. >>>>>>>>> 67.0% D.
In the election of 1964, the Democrats retained control of the Presidency and increased their membership in both the House and the Senate. In the off-year election of 1966, the Democrats lost membership in both houses but retained control.
1964 >>>>> 67.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 68.0% D.
1966 >>>>> 57.0% D. >>>>>>>>> 58.0% D.
What conclusions can be drawn from the elections from 1928 through 1966? The political pattern holds true: in non Presidential elections the Party of the President normally lost members in Congress. Similarly, the Party of the newly elected President tended to gain membership in Congress. It is not a perfect pattern but it is consistent. The Presidential Party loses members in Congress in off-year elections. The winning Presidential Party gains members in Congress.
Also, wars tend to result in a change in parties both in Congress and sometimes in the Presidency. In the off year election of 1946 the Democrats lost Congress even though they were the party in power at the successful conclusion of World War II. The Democrats lost both Congress and the Presidency in the middle of the Korean Conflict.
(Tomorrow: 1968 to the present)
