Special elections—one 2009 and two 2010 elections


Tonight I’m off my planned post again but do plan to start posting on Illinois’ budget next.

The focus of tonight’s post is the upcoming general election in 2010. This election will be a pivotal election if conservatives are to regain control of the nation. With all the attempts of the Democrats to radically alter the direction of this nation, if conservatives are not able to retake the Congress or at least greatly increase their impact in the decision making process, the nation is in even deeper trouble than it is presently. This is not about Republicans winning but about conservatives winning.

The primaries MUST be a priority. If a conservative does not win the primary in the Republican Party, I would suggest looking at a third party conservative candidate. I will be doing that in the Illinois Senate race as the in-power Republicans early on supported a RINO Republican. With over half a dozen candidates, conservatives were not able to coalesce around one conservative candidate.

Whether or not a conservative wins in a primary, do not use a shotgun approach to the 2010 election. Rather, use a scoped rifle approach. It is neither necessary that we win ever election in 2010 nor is it probable. We need to concentrate on the winnable contests that have true conservatives running in the race. That’s the scoped rifle approach. We carefully select the targets—and at this point there are a lot of probable targets—and then work like crazy and contribute money, as needed, to win those selected elections.

Three special elections that have already occurred should work as case studies on what needs to be done. The first was the New York special election last year in District 23. As has been occurring, the established Republican leadership selected a bad candidate. From what I have read and heard, the Republican selected was even more liberal than the Democratic candidate in a Democratic district. In response, conservatives put forth their own candidate. The second and third special elections occurred this month. The second election was the special election in Pennsylvania District 12—John Murtha’s seat before his death. The third was the special election in Hawaii for District 1. The Democratic Congressman resigned to run for governor. In Arizona, a candidate in the last year of his term must resign if running for a different office. That may also be the case in Hawaii although I don’t know for certain. (I personally like that Arizona law.)

1) New York District 23

I’ve been having problems posting. The picture posted recently without text didn’t seem readable so I’m trying again tonight after cutting the size of the picture. It is a section of the ballot in New York District 23’s special House of Representatives election in November of last year. After the election results came in, I was told by a local resident that used to live in New York that New York uses an unusual ballot process.

Looking at the ballot, note that both the Democratic and the Republican candidates were listed as party candidates on the ballot for two political parties. It is my understanding that the votes for the candidate for each party are then combined. On the ballot, William Owens was listed as both a Democrat and a candidate for Working Families. Dede Scozzafava was listed as both a Republican and a candidate for the Independence Party. Douglas Hoffman, who was supported by many conservative Republicans, was listed as a candidate for only the Conservative Party.

If you’ll remember, he was doing so well among probable voters that Dede Scozzafava withdrew from the race right before the election, consequently her name was still listed on the ballot and she still received votes, and threw her support to the Democrat. The Democrat won in a close election.

William Owens, after taking office for the remainder of the term, voted for the nationalization of healthcare. If Douglas Hoffman runs as a Republican in the 2010 election as well as a candidate for the Conservative Party, he may well defeat William Owens in the 2010 election.

2) Pennsylvania District 12

According to the Peoria Journal Star on May 19, 2010, page A2: “In another race with national significance, Democrat Mark Critz won a special House election to fill out the term of the late Democratic Representative John Murtha in southwestern Pennsylvania. The two political parties spent roughly $1 million apiece hoping to sway the outcome there, and highlighted the contest as a possible bellwether for the fall when all 435 House seats will be on the ballot.”

In March when the nationalized healthcare bill was still being hotly debated and I was doing income tax work and therefore did not have the time I normally spend reading, I started listening to talk radio—Beck, Limbaugh, and Hannity—when I had an opportunity, to stay current. I have continued to listen as I have time since I hear more accurate information and more complete information than I read in my local paper—the Peoria Journal Star. Some but not all of the following information is from listening to the above mentioned programs.

I don’t know if the candidates for the House were selected by party leaders or in a special primary election. I do know that while Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns were running against each other in the House special election they, on the same day, were also running for the nomination for their respective political parties in the primary election for the 2010 election. According to my information, Mark Critz won the special election by 7-8% even though the district is 2-1 registered Democrats over registered Republicans. I could not find the turnout percentage but I also know that John Murtha won his election in 2008 with 58% of the vote which was a higher percentage than received by Mark Critz. Mark Critz was also endorsed by John Murtha’s widow and had worked for Murtha in Congress as a Congressional Aide.

In the primary election to represent their parties in 2010, the figures are rather startling.

In the Democratic Primary election:

Mark Critz received 59,820 votes

Ryan Bucchianeri received 16,705 votes

Ronald Mackell received 6,426 votes

for a total of 82,951 votes cast in the Democratic primary for candidates for the House of Representatives

In the Republican Primary election:

Tim Burns received 26,194 votes

William Russell received 19,775 votes

for a total of 45,969 votes cast in the Republican primary for candidates for the House of Representatives

If all Democrats who voted in the primary election also voted for Mark Critz in the special election and all Republicans who voted in the primary election also voted for Tim Burns in the special election, Mark Critz should have won the election with 64% of the vote, excluding independent voters. Of course, all Democrats and all Republicans probably would not vote for the party candidate. Certainly a large number probably did vote for the candidate that is representing their party in the special election. Thus, it seems likely that a larger percentage of independent voters voted for Tim Burns, the Republican, than for Mark Critz, the Democrat and the winner of the special election.

One voter calling the Limbaugh Show said that William Russell ran against John Murtha in the 2008 election and, as a conservative Republican, he and his wife were once again supporting Russell in the primary. Therefore, they DID NOT vote for Tim Burns in the special election. However, since Burns also won the Republican primary, they would vote for Burns in the 2010 general election.

Furthermore, according to a commentary printed in the Peoria Journal Star on May 26, 2010, page A4 by George Will: “The candidate who last week won the special election in a Pennsylvania congressional district is right-to-life and pro-gun. He accused his opponent of wanting heavier taxes. He said he would have voted against Barack Obama’s health care plan and promised to vote against cap-and-trade legislation, which is a tax increase supposedly somehow related to turning down the planet’s thermostat. This candidate, Mark Critz, is a Democrat.”

In other words, in order to help him win in the special election, Mark Critz sounded like a conservative Republican. If he does not vote in the manner he said he would, he may be very vulnerable in the 2010 general election. Will he stay conservative, at least through this year, to get reelected in November? If this is an example of Democrats holding their own, are they in trouble for the general election in 2010?

At the present time, Democrats hold both Senate seats in Pennsylvania with Arlen Specter’s switch to the Democratic Party. Secter lost his bid for the Democratic nomination in the primary even though supported by President Barack Hussein Obama. Presently, the Democrats hold 12 of the 19 seats in the House of Representatives for Pennsylvania.

2) Hawaii District 1

Both of Hawaii Senators are Democrats and before the special election both of their members in the House of Representatives were Democrats. Hawaii is considered a Democratic blue State. The first District was where Barack Hussein Obama lived when he lived in Hawaii. The coverage in our local news paper has been sparse in relation to this special election. However, it seems that a Republican has won this District. Neil Abercrombie who gave up the seat to run for Governor of Hawaii won his election in 2008 with 71% of the vote. If Republican Charles Djou can hold the District in the 2010 general election, things seem dark for the Democratic majority in the House if this Democratic District in the heart of a blue State can be won, which has already occurred, and held!