The 2006 election results, part 2
Yesterday I wrote that a basic tenet of political thought is that in non Presidential elections the Party of the President normally loses members in Congress. Similarly, the Party of the newly elected President tends to gain membership in Congress. I then reported on the make up of Congress from 1928 through 1966. Tonight, I will continue from 1968 to the present.
To recap, in 1964 Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won the Presidency with over 60% of the vote. The Democrats controlled Congress with hefty majorities. Although the Democrats lost some members in the off-year election of 1966, they still had a 57% majority in the House of Representatives and a 64% majority in the Senate.
However, the Vietnam Conflict was also growing more serious. The election in 1968 resulted in the election of Republican President Richard M. Nixon and a continued decline in the Congress for the Democrats. In the non Presidential election of 1970, the Democrats gained members in the House but continued to lose members in the Senate.
Year >>> House members >>> Senate members
1968 >>>>> 55.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 58.0% D.
1970 >>>>> 58.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 54.0% D.
In the Presidential election of 1972, Republican Richard M. Nixon was reelected President and the Democrats lost members in the House but gained in the Senate in a reversal of the 1970 election results. In the 1974 off-year election, the Democrats gain members in both houses of Congress.
1972 >>>>> 55.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 56.0% D.
1974 >>>>> 66.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 61.0% D.
In the 1976 election, the Democrats regained control of the Presidency, had a slight gain in the House, and remained the same in the Senate. Two years later, the Democratic membership in both houses decreased slightly.
1976 >>>>> 67.1% D. >>>>>>>>> 61.0% D.
1978 >>>>> 63.7% D. >>>>>>>>> 58.0% D.
In 1980 after a terrorist attack on an U.S. embassy, Republican Ronald Reagan was elected President. The Democrats lost membership in the House and lost control of the Senate for the first time since 1952. The next election saw an increase of Democrats in the House and the same number of Democrats in the Senate.
1980 >>>>> 55.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 46.0% D.
1982 >>>>> 61.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 46.0% D.
In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan was reelected and the Democrats lost membership in the House but gained one Senator. In the 1986 off-year election, the Democrats slightly increased their House majority and regained control of the Senate after six years in Republican hands.
1984 >>>>> 58.2% D. >>>>>>>>> 47.0% D.
1986 >>>>> 59.3% D. >>>>>>>>> 55.0% D.
In the Presidential election of 1988, the Republicans retained control of the Presidency but the Democratic control of the Congress remained virtually the same with only a very slight increase in the House. In 1990, the Democrats slightly increased their control of both houses of Congress.
1988 >>>>> 59.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 55.0% D.
1990 >>>>> 61.4% D. >>>>>>>>> 56.0% D.
In the election of 1992, the Democrats regained control of the Presidency, had a slight decrease in their majority in the House, and a slight increase in their majority in the Senate. However, things drastically changed in Congress in the off-year election of 1994. The Democrats lost control of Congress for the first time since 1952. It was also the first time since 1952 that the Democrats did not control the House of Representatives.
1992 >>>>> 59.3% D. >>>>>>>>> 57.0% D.
1994 >>>>> 46.2% D. >>>>>>>>> 47.0% D.
In 1996, the Democrats reelected Bill Clinton as President, had a slight increase in House members, but had a small decrease in the Senate. The off-year election brought a slight increase in the House for the Democrats while the Senate remained the same.
1996 >>>>> 47.4% D. >>>>>>>>> 45.0% D.
1998 >>>>> 48.5% D. >>>>>>>>> 45.0% D.
The election of 2000 resulted in the election of a Republican to the Presidency, the House membership remaining the same for the Democrats, but the Democrats barely recaptured the Senate when an elected Republican changed to an Independent after the election. (I seem to remember this occurring. My source listed the Republicans at 50 Senators and the Democrats at 50 Senators. If a Republican did not change to an Independent, then the Republicans controlled the Senate because the Republican Vice President would have a tie breaking vote to give the Republicans a majority. Either way, the Senate was very close to being in deadlock.) In the 2002 election, the Republicans increased slightly their control of the House and retook the Senate.
2000 >>>>> 48.5% D. >>>>>>>>> 50.0% D.
2002 >>>>> 47.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 48.0% D.
Republican President George W. Bush was reelected in 2004 and the Republicans increased their control in Congress by a small margin. Of course as we know, the Republicans just lost control of Congress with the conclusion of the 2006 election.
2004 >>>>> 47.1% D. >>>>>>>>> 44.0% D.
2006 I don’t have the exact percentage breakdown on this.
In the forty years from the election of 1968 to the next election in 2008, the Republicans have controlled the Presidency for 28 years. The Democrats have controlled the Presidency for 12 years. In the 28 years that the Republicans have controlled the White House, they have only controlled both houses of Congress for, at most, six years. (Six years if the Republicans also had 50 Senators in 2000 which, as I’ve stated, I think a Republican changed to an Independent to prevent that from happening.) In the mean time, in the 12 years that the Democrats controlled the Presidency, they have only controlled both houses of Congress for six years.
What then are the conclusions? It seems that the American voters, since the 1968 election during the Vietnam Conflict, prefer a divided government. When the Democrats controlled the White House, they only controlled both houses of Congress half the time. For the Republicans the results are even worse. Although they have controlled the White House more, they have controlled both houses of Congress far less often—less than 25% of the time.
Furthermore, wars don’t seem to be beneficial for the Party that controls the White House. I must admit that I was surprised when the elder George Bush lost the election in 1992 just after winning the Gulf War the year before. I though the quick conclusion of that war would insure his reelection. (Not coincidently, 1991 was the best year I ever had in the stock market with my investments increasing 46%. Who said the economy was bad?) Of course, the war in Iraq certainly had some influence in the 2006 election although not to the extent claimed by the mass media. (See the next paragraph.)
So, it seems that to those who understand the political system in the U.S., the results of the current election should come as no surprise. The voters have opted for more divided government. The vote fits the pattern of the last 40 years. No great Democratic miracle occurred. It is the continuation of the same recurring pattern.
Consequently, the real contest is just beginning—the 2008 Presidential election!
(The source for the membership in Congress is: “Partisan Breakdown of Seats in Congress”, Microsoft ® Encarta ® 2007. [DVD]. Redmond, Wa: Microsoft Corporation, 2006.)
Yesterday I wrote that a basic tenet of political thought is that in non Presidential elections the Party of the President normally loses members in Congress. Similarly, the Party of the newly elected President tends to gain membership in Congress. I then reported on the make up of Congress from 1928 through 1966. Tonight, I will continue from 1968 to the present.
To recap, in 1964 Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won the Presidency with over 60% of the vote. The Democrats controlled Congress with hefty majorities. Although the Democrats lost some members in the off-year election of 1966, they still had a 57% majority in the House of Representatives and a 64% majority in the Senate.
However, the Vietnam Conflict was also growing more serious. The election in 1968 resulted in the election of Republican President Richard M. Nixon and a continued decline in the Congress for the Democrats. In the non Presidential election of 1970, the Democrats gained members in the House but continued to lose members in the Senate.
Year >>> House members >>> Senate members
1968 >>>>> 55.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 58.0% D.
1970 >>>>> 58.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 54.0% D.
In the Presidential election of 1972, Republican Richard M. Nixon was reelected President and the Democrats lost members in the House but gained in the Senate in a reversal of the 1970 election results. In the 1974 off-year election, the Democrats gain members in both houses of Congress.
1972 >>>>> 55.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 56.0% D.
1974 >>>>> 66.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 61.0% D.
In the 1976 election, the Democrats regained control of the Presidency, had a slight gain in the House, and remained the same in the Senate. Two years later, the Democratic membership in both houses decreased slightly.
1976 >>>>> 67.1% D. >>>>>>>>> 61.0% D.
1978 >>>>> 63.7% D. >>>>>>>>> 58.0% D.
In 1980 after a terrorist attack on an U.S. embassy, Republican Ronald Reagan was elected President. The Democrats lost membership in the House and lost control of the Senate for the first time since 1952. The next election saw an increase of Democrats in the House and the same number of Democrats in the Senate.
1980 >>>>> 55.9% D. >>>>>>>>> 46.0% D.
1982 >>>>> 61.6% D. >>>>>>>>> 46.0% D.
In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan was reelected and the Democrats lost membership in the House but gained one Senator. In the 1986 off-year election, the Democrats slightly increased their House majority and regained control of the Senate after six years in Republican hands.
1984 >>>>> 58.2% D. >>>>>>>>> 47.0% D.
1986 >>>>> 59.3% D. >>>>>>>>> 55.0% D.
In the Presidential election of 1988, the Republicans retained control of the Presidency but the Democratic control of the Congress remained virtually the same with only a very slight increase in the House. In 1990, the Democrats slightly increased their control of both houses of Congress.
1988 >>>>> 59.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 55.0% D.
1990 >>>>> 61.4% D. >>>>>>>>> 56.0% D.
In the election of 1992, the Democrats regained control of the Presidency, had a slight decrease in their majority in the House, and a slight increase in their majority in the Senate. However, things drastically changed in Congress in the off-year election of 1994. The Democrats lost control of Congress for the first time since 1952. It was also the first time since 1952 that the Democrats did not control the House of Representatives.
1992 >>>>> 59.3% D. >>>>>>>>> 57.0% D.
1994 >>>>> 46.2% D. >>>>>>>>> 47.0% D.
In 1996, the Democrats reelected Bill Clinton as President, had a slight increase in House members, but had a small decrease in the Senate. The off-year election brought a slight increase in the House for the Democrats while the Senate remained the same.
1996 >>>>> 47.4% D. >>>>>>>>> 45.0% D.
1998 >>>>> 48.5% D. >>>>>>>>> 45.0% D.
The election of 2000 resulted in the election of a Republican to the Presidency, the House membership remaining the same for the Democrats, but the Democrats barely recaptured the Senate when an elected Republican changed to an Independent after the election. (I seem to remember this occurring. My source listed the Republicans at 50 Senators and the Democrats at 50 Senators. If a Republican did not change to an Independent, then the Republicans controlled the Senate because the Republican Vice President would have a tie breaking vote to give the Republicans a majority. Either way, the Senate was very close to being in deadlock.) In the 2002 election, the Republicans increased slightly their control of the House and retook the Senate.
2000 >>>>> 48.5% D. >>>>>>>>> 50.0% D.
2002 >>>>> 47.8% D. >>>>>>>>> 48.0% D.
Republican President George W. Bush was reelected in 2004 and the Republicans increased their control in Congress by a small margin. Of course as we know, the Republicans just lost control of Congress with the conclusion of the 2006 election.
2004 >>>>> 47.1% D. >>>>>>>>> 44.0% D.
2006 I don’t have the exact percentage breakdown on this.
In the forty years from the election of 1968 to the next election in 2008, the Republicans have controlled the Presidency for 28 years. The Democrats have controlled the Presidency for 12 years. In the 28 years that the Republicans have controlled the White House, they have only controlled both houses of Congress for, at most, six years. (Six years if the Republicans also had 50 Senators in 2000 which, as I’ve stated, I think a Republican changed to an Independent to prevent that from happening.) In the mean time, in the 12 years that the Democrats controlled the Presidency, they have only controlled both houses of Congress for six years.
What then are the conclusions? It seems that the American voters, since the 1968 election during the Vietnam Conflict, prefer a divided government. When the Democrats controlled the White House, they only controlled both houses of Congress half the time. For the Republicans the results are even worse. Although they have controlled the White House more, they have controlled both houses of Congress far less often—less than 25% of the time.
Furthermore, wars don’t seem to be beneficial for the Party that controls the White House. I must admit that I was surprised when the elder George Bush lost the election in 1992 just after winning the Gulf War the year before. I though the quick conclusion of that war would insure his reelection. (Not coincidently, 1991 was the best year I ever had in the stock market with my investments increasing 46%. Who said the economy was bad?) Of course, the war in Iraq certainly had some influence in the 2006 election although not to the extent claimed by the mass media. (See the next paragraph.)
So, it seems that to those who understand the political system in the U.S., the results of the current election should come as no surprise. The voters have opted for more divided government. The vote fits the pattern of the last 40 years. No great Democratic miracle occurred. It is the continuation of the same recurring pattern.
Consequently, the real contest is just beginning—the 2008 Presidential election!
(The source for the membership in Congress is: “Partisan Breakdown of Seats in Congress”, Microsoft ® Encarta ® 2007. [DVD]. Redmond, Wa: Microsoft Corporation, 2006.)
posted by Christian Gunslinger at 11:59 PM
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