Video gambling—anonymous said
I received a comment on my post entitled Video gambling is predatory gambling. I am responding to that comment tonight. The comment with my response:
“Anonymous said …
Two problems with the statistical analysis that you are presenting in your blog. One is that your number of gambling addicts is based off the entire population not the adult population, children are not allowed to legally gamble. Second you are assuming that video gambling would move Illinois from a state of no gambling addicts to the full amount. Seeing as Illinois already has legalized gaming in the form of casinos, race tracking betting, the lottery, and of course illegal gaming, both in person and online, it is extremely unlikely that Illinois is at the zero state.
11: 14 PM”
I’m going to answer each “problem” separately.
1) “One is that your number of gambling addicts is based off the entire population not the adult population, children are not allowed to legally gamble.”
My response: Thank you! That is exactly one of my points and one reason why I specifically used a figure—.8%—off of the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association (http://www.icmoa.org/) website.
Why do you think the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association used that figure in promoting video gambling? It seems obvious to me. Answer this question: When factoring in the entire population—newly born to 100+ year old adults—the percentage figure of addicted individuals is going to be smaller, the same, or larger than the percentage figure if only examining individuals from say 18 through 95? Of course, the percentage figure is going to be lower because it includes a large part of the population who would not gamble anyway. Thus, the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association can say: “Less that one percent are addicted gamblers. Is that really so bad?”
Of course, .8% may not seem to be so bad to you (that I don’t know) and others. To me it is. However, the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association is the organization who chose the base. To make a valid comparison using the .8% of the entire population, one MUST use the same base to reach a valid conclusion when making a comparison with other populations. Therefore, using the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association own figure: For Illinois that translates to 99,354 people who will become compulsive gamblers in Illinois and whose families will also be destroyed with them. Almost 100,000 [one hundred thousand] throwaway families destroyed to benefit a few specially selected businesses and our GANGSTER GOVERNMENT. (12,419,293 people X .8% = 99,354) For Tazewell County (again using the base and percentage promoted by the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association) that’s 128,485 people (2,000 population figure) X .8% = 1027 people and their families. For the Village of Morton that’s 16,670 people X .8% = 133 people and their families. Obviously, if one uses a different base with less people in the base (for example, 18 through 95) the percentage will be HIGHER. My guess is that is one reason why the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association used the base that was used.
2) “Second you are assuming that video gambling would move Illinois from a state of no gambling addicts to the full amount. Seeing as Illinois already has legalized gaming in the form of casinos, race tracking betting, the lottery, and of course illegal gaming, both in person and online, it is extremely unlikely that Illinois is at the zero state.”
My response: You are assuming that I assumed something that I NEVER assumed. I’m quite aware that gambling is going on and that there are addicts as a result of that gambling. My position is that these addictions WILL INCREASE for a variety of reasons. Again, I specifically used the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association figure because it WAS SO LOW. Either you did not read my first series of posts which started on September 14th with “Give US more money” and ended on October 1st or you did not accept the information provided. I can’t force you or anyone else to believe the material presented. If you don’t accept the information, do your own research and form your own conclusions.
I’m not going to repeat everything I wrote (It was 59 pages long when I gave it to the Village Trustees.) but I will repeat a few items. First, gambling, like any other economic activity is based upon supply and demand principles. Increasing the number of video poker machines outside of casinos from zero to 45,000 machines State wide can only result in three possibilities—less money will be spent overall, the amount of money spent will remain the same, or more money will be spent overall. Likewise, who is gambling can only have three results—less people are gambling, the same numbers of people are gambling, or more people are gambling. These six combinations are the only six possible. Who knows the future combination that will result?
Just as obviously, any business that becomes licensed for video gambling machines and who then installs them will have some capital costs. These capital costs include among others: 1) the cost of the machines, 2) the cost of maintenance, 3) the cost of the space those machines occupy, 4) the fee assessed to each machine each year, 5) the cost of utilities, 6) the cost of lost opportunities—money invested in machines can not be invested in something else and 7) replacement costs.
Using an overly simplified economic analysis (I’m not teaching an economics class here), no sane businessman would invest in these capital costs without the belief and hope of making a profit and, in fact, a profit greater than he can make by investing in other opportunities. He is not going to invest in video gambling to receive a 2% return on investment if he can make 6% elsewhere with the same investment. He’s not in the business of promoting gambling just to promote gambling.
To make such an investment profitable, more money must be spent overall at least in his establishment. To do that, money spent in other gambling activities will have to be decreased and spent at his establishment, the same number of people are going to have to increase their gambling money spent, more people have to begin gambling and/or a combination of the three.
Just as obvious to me, the State and the owners of the establishments expect more money to be spent overall on gambling and more people to gamble. Both are expecting an increase in spending in millions of dollars. That almost certainly will NOT happen without more people gambling and/or more people gambling to “extinction.” Remember, the model is for 10% of the gamblers losing 90% of the money.
In previous posts, I have mentioned some of the reasons why both more money will be spent and more people will gamble. Some of these include: 1) Most casinos attract 80% or more of their market from a 35-50 mile radius. There are only a limited number of casinos in Illinois and many people don’t live within that radius. In the future, if 45,000 new video gambling machines are placed in most establishments that serve alcohol by the glass, just about if not everyone within the State will be within that radius—easier access will no doubt translate into more gambling by more people—surrendering to temptation. 2) Addiction rates double within 50 miles of a casino. Of course, 50 miles is the outside radius for those who are attracted to casino gambling as mentioned in point one. In the future, almost everyone if not everyone will be within that 50 mile radius. 3) Video gambling is the “crack cocaine” of gambling resulting in more people being addicted than with other forms of gambling. Addiction occurs faster than other forms of gambling. It more often leads to gambling to “extinction.”
As stated in an earlier post, any time something that was illegal becomes legal as in video gambling at specified establishments, there are people who would not use the machines before who will use them now because they are now legal. The legality of the activity gives it State sanctioned approval. The percent varies with the activity legalized but it does happen. People will do an activity that is legal that they would not do if it remained illegal and that includes video gambling.
By the way, the argument that more people drank alcohol during prohibition than before or after is a myth. No scientific evidence has ever proved that to be true. In fact, it can not be proven since alcohol consumption statistics were not accurately recorded before prohibition, during prohibition, or directly after prohibition. That myth was begun, in part, by a popular newspaperman who came to that conclusion and then the myth was passed on as fact. It was repealed, in part, to raise money for governments including the federal government. Some States and areas maintained prohibition provisions. The same is true for the myth on how many illegal abortions were done each year when such abortions were prohibited by law. No records were kept. A doctor and/or doctors made up the “statistics.”
What is known is that gambling is addictive to some people, video gambling is MORE addictive than other types of gambling, and people and families suffer destructively because of the addictive behavior from video gambling. People who are addicted lie, cheat, steal, go deeply into debt, go bankrupt, and commit suicide. How many throw away people and families will be destroyed for the State’s, the counties’, the communities’, and the businesses’ THIRTY PIECES OF SILVER?
I received a comment on my post entitled Video gambling is predatory gambling. I am responding to that comment tonight. The comment with my response:
“Anonymous said …
Two problems with the statistical analysis that you are presenting in your blog. One is that your number of gambling addicts is based off the entire population not the adult population, children are not allowed to legally gamble. Second you are assuming that video gambling would move Illinois from a state of no gambling addicts to the full amount. Seeing as Illinois already has legalized gaming in the form of casinos, race tracking betting, the lottery, and of course illegal gaming, both in person and online, it is extremely unlikely that Illinois is at the zero state.
11: 14 PM”
I’m going to answer each “problem” separately.
1) “One is that your number of gambling addicts is based off the entire population not the adult population, children are not allowed to legally gamble.”
My response: Thank you! That is exactly one of my points and one reason why I specifically used a figure—.8%—off of the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association (http://www.icmoa.org/) website.
Why do you think the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association used that figure in promoting video gambling? It seems obvious to me. Answer this question: When factoring in the entire population—newly born to 100+ year old adults—the percentage figure of addicted individuals is going to be smaller, the same, or larger than the percentage figure if only examining individuals from say 18 through 95? Of course, the percentage figure is going to be lower because it includes a large part of the population who would not gamble anyway. Thus, the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association can say: “Less that one percent are addicted gamblers. Is that really so bad?”
Of course, .8% may not seem to be so bad to you (that I don’t know) and others. To me it is. However, the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association is the organization who chose the base. To make a valid comparison using the .8% of the entire population, one MUST use the same base to reach a valid conclusion when making a comparison with other populations. Therefore, using the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association own figure: For Illinois that translates to 99,354 people who will become compulsive gamblers in Illinois and whose families will also be destroyed with them. Almost 100,000 [one hundred thousand] throwaway families destroyed to benefit a few specially selected businesses and our GANGSTER GOVERNMENT. (12,419,293 people X .8% = 99,354) For Tazewell County (again using the base and percentage promoted by the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association) that’s 128,485 people (2,000 population figure) X .8% = 1027 people and their families. For the Village of Morton that’s 16,670 people X .8% = 133 people and their families. Obviously, if one uses a different base with less people in the base (for example, 18 through 95) the percentage will be HIGHER. My guess is that is one reason why the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association used the base that was used.
2) “Second you are assuming that video gambling would move Illinois from a state of no gambling addicts to the full amount. Seeing as Illinois already has legalized gaming in the form of casinos, race tracking betting, the lottery, and of course illegal gaming, both in person and online, it is extremely unlikely that Illinois is at the zero state.”
My response: You are assuming that I assumed something that I NEVER assumed. I’m quite aware that gambling is going on and that there are addicts as a result of that gambling. My position is that these addictions WILL INCREASE for a variety of reasons. Again, I specifically used the Illinois Coin Machine Operators Association figure because it WAS SO LOW. Either you did not read my first series of posts which started on September 14th with “Give US more money” and ended on October 1st or you did not accept the information provided. I can’t force you or anyone else to believe the material presented. If you don’t accept the information, do your own research and form your own conclusions.
I’m not going to repeat everything I wrote (It was 59 pages long when I gave it to the Village Trustees.) but I will repeat a few items. First, gambling, like any other economic activity is based upon supply and demand principles. Increasing the number of video poker machines outside of casinos from zero to 45,000 machines State wide can only result in three possibilities—less money will be spent overall, the amount of money spent will remain the same, or more money will be spent overall. Likewise, who is gambling can only have three results—less people are gambling, the same numbers of people are gambling, or more people are gambling. These six combinations are the only six possible. Who knows the future combination that will result?
Just as obviously, any business that becomes licensed for video gambling machines and who then installs them will have some capital costs. These capital costs include among others: 1) the cost of the machines, 2) the cost of maintenance, 3) the cost of the space those machines occupy, 4) the fee assessed to each machine each year, 5) the cost of utilities, 6) the cost of lost opportunities—money invested in machines can not be invested in something else and 7) replacement costs.
Using an overly simplified economic analysis (I’m not teaching an economics class here), no sane businessman would invest in these capital costs without the belief and hope of making a profit and, in fact, a profit greater than he can make by investing in other opportunities. He is not going to invest in video gambling to receive a 2% return on investment if he can make 6% elsewhere with the same investment. He’s not in the business of promoting gambling just to promote gambling.
To make such an investment profitable, more money must be spent overall at least in his establishment. To do that, money spent in other gambling activities will have to be decreased and spent at his establishment, the same number of people are going to have to increase their gambling money spent, more people have to begin gambling and/or a combination of the three.
Just as obvious to me, the State and the owners of the establishments expect more money to be spent overall on gambling and more people to gamble. Both are expecting an increase in spending in millions of dollars. That almost certainly will NOT happen without more people gambling and/or more people gambling to “extinction.” Remember, the model is for 10% of the gamblers losing 90% of the money.
In previous posts, I have mentioned some of the reasons why both more money will be spent and more people will gamble. Some of these include: 1) Most casinos attract 80% or more of their market from a 35-50 mile radius. There are only a limited number of casinos in Illinois and many people don’t live within that radius. In the future, if 45,000 new video gambling machines are placed in most establishments that serve alcohol by the glass, just about if not everyone within the State will be within that radius—easier access will no doubt translate into more gambling by more people—surrendering to temptation. 2) Addiction rates double within 50 miles of a casino. Of course, 50 miles is the outside radius for those who are attracted to casino gambling as mentioned in point one. In the future, almost everyone if not everyone will be within that 50 mile radius. 3) Video gambling is the “crack cocaine” of gambling resulting in more people being addicted than with other forms of gambling. Addiction occurs faster than other forms of gambling. It more often leads to gambling to “extinction.”
As stated in an earlier post, any time something that was illegal becomes legal as in video gambling at specified establishments, there are people who would not use the machines before who will use them now because they are now legal. The legality of the activity gives it State sanctioned approval. The percent varies with the activity legalized but it does happen. People will do an activity that is legal that they would not do if it remained illegal and that includes video gambling.
By the way, the argument that more people drank alcohol during prohibition than before or after is a myth. No scientific evidence has ever proved that to be true. In fact, it can not be proven since alcohol consumption statistics were not accurately recorded before prohibition, during prohibition, or directly after prohibition. That myth was begun, in part, by a popular newspaperman who came to that conclusion and then the myth was passed on as fact. It was repealed, in part, to raise money for governments including the federal government. Some States and areas maintained prohibition provisions. The same is true for the myth on how many illegal abortions were done each year when such abortions were prohibited by law. No records were kept. A doctor and/or doctors made up the “statistics.”
What is known is that gambling is addictive to some people, video gambling is MORE addictive than other types of gambling, and people and families suffer destructively because of the addictive behavior from video gambling. People who are addicted lie, cheat, steal, go deeply into debt, go bankrupt, and commit suicide. How many throw away people and families will be destroyed for the State’s, the counties’, the communities’, and the businesses’ THIRTY PIECES OF SILVER?
posted by Christian Gunslinger at 5:00 AM
2 Comments:
You did a nice bit of double talk in this post related to your own use of .8 You clearly took .8 percent of the total population when you know that a large portion of that population is not legally allowed to gamble never stating if the .8 percent is based off of the entire population or the adult population, which is what it is more likely to be based off of. It does not take much research to find that most gambling studies base addiction rates off of the adult population. I dont see you present any evidence that that number is related to the total population, adult population or even just to people that part take in gambling. Why should any believe that you haven't picked and chosen numbers to support your argument.
Lets look at your comments about Tazewell:
"In Tazewell County using the lower figure of .8% and using 2000 population figures (128,485 people) that would be 1028 citizens with resultant families whose lives could be ruined by this additive behavior if this law is allowed to stand."
Your sure seem to be acting like the video gaming law would bring Tazewell country from a state of zero or near zero gaming addicts to a the maximum. Last checked Tazewell county is already home to one of the largest casinos in Illinois, so there is little reason to think that Tazewell County is anywear near the zero state.
Just goes to show, you can make numbers say anything.
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